Thursday, March 16, 2006

It's baaaaaaacccccccckkk

I tried to snap out of my spell yesterday I really, really tried. I tried so hard. I WANT to win when I have the best hand when the money goes in, I do - I promise you that. I WANT to win when I'm a 4 to 1 or more favorite, but I just can't seem to do it. Yesterday I dropped two 30+3s, a 20+2, and I got 3rd in a 20+2, which pissed me off because of the way some hands went down. Again, I played great all day and kept my steaming to an extreme minimum. But no matter how good I play, I can't dodge the luck. Check out these HH's as I drop a little math on ya.

hard2rock is at seat 1 with 935.
kidcrash is at seat 2 with 14065.
The button is at seat 1.

hard2rock posts the small blind of 75.
kidcrash posts the big blind of 150.

hard2rock: -- --
kidcrash: Ks Ac


hard2rock calls. kidcrash raises to 1450. hard2rock
goes all-in for 935. kidcrash is returned 515
Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

hard2rock shows Qh Td.
kidcrash shows Ks Ac.

At this point I'm only a 64% favorite, so all's fair preflop as far as I'm concerned.

Flop (board: 4h Kh As)

Alright lookin good, I'm an 81% favorite now. He's looking for an inside straight draw (4 outs) or runner runner something, either hearts or QQ or 1010. Again, 81% favorite. He's drawin pretty slim to his straight here, cuz he needs one of four jacks in the deck to hit it. FOUR cards out of 45, or .0889, or 9% generously. One of four cards, there's no way he's gonna catch a…

Turn (board: 4h Kh As Jd)


River (board: 4h Kh As Jd 5s)


hard2rock has Qh Td Kh As Jd: straight, ace high.
kidcrash has Ks Ac Kh As Jd: two pair, aces and kings.

Hand #30300924-80 Summary:
hard2rock wins 1870 with straight, ace high.

Ok so no big deal, the past couple days hasn't been the best days of my poker life, it has to end soon. Hey let's jump into another 30+3 SnG since I'm playing well and getting my money in as a huge favorite.

gomer is at seat 1 with 1920.
michaelvan is at seat 2 with 1755.
thePROTZ is at seat 3 with 2930.
hodgeman is at seat 5 with 2355.
TheBait is at seat 6 with 1090.
dcshoe is at seat 7 with 1165.
garmiester is at seat 8 with 3000.
kidcrash is at seat 9 with 785.<--You might notice this short stack here. Take a guess as to how it got there if you dare.

The button is at seat 1.

michaelvan posts the small blind of 15.
thePROTZ posts the big blind of 30.

gomer: -- --
michaelvan: -- --
thePROTZ: -- --
hodgeman: -- --
TheBait: -- --
dcshoe: -- --
garmiester: -- --
kidcrash: 9h Th


hodgeman calls. TheBait folds. dcshoe calls.
garmiester raises to 60. kidcrash calls. gomer
folds. michaelvan folds. thePROTZ calls. hodgeman
calls. dcshoe calls.

I call here because this hand is beautiful in this situation. I'm in the cutoff with mid suited connectors. We have two limpers, one MIN RAISER, and the button behind me. Almost 100% of those in the pot already, including the blinds, will be calling the extra 30 because min-raising is the most retarded move anyone can make in NLH, ever. So I call, liking my hand for my position and my pot odds.

Flop (board: 7h 9s 4h)

thePROTZ bets 30. hodgeman folds. dcshoe folds.
garmiester calls. kidcrash raises to 435. thePROTZ
folds. garmiester calls.

Bingo Bango Bongo, Vince! This is a gorgeous flop. Even against AA on the flop here I'm a favorite, 52 to 48. Again, some moron MIN BETS (which, if I have to remind you, is the most retarded move anyone can make in NLH, ever) and the original min raiser calls, so I bump it not wanting to let a bigger flush draw in cheap.

Turn (board: 7h 9s 4h 5c)

garmiester checks. kidcrash goes all-in for 290.
garmiester calls.

He check calls here, which is an interesting move considering that I only had 290 left, and he was getting his money in either way. Anyways

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

garmiester shows 9d 8d.
kidcrash shows 9h Th.

Interesting play by the big stack here, but I don't mind it. On the flop I'm an 83% to win. Even on the turn, with his renewed outs with an inside straight draw, I improve to an 89% favorite. 89%. 9 to 1 more or less. 89%. He's drawing to 5 outs, 3 sixes and 2 eights. The 6h and the 8h are still out, so if either of those hits I make my flush and he's no good. 5 outs.

River (board: 7h 9s 4h 5c 8c)


garmiester has 9d 8d 7h 9s 8c: two pair, nines and eights.
kidcrash has 9h Th 7h 9s 8c: a pair of nines.

Hand #30350597-18 Summary:
garmiester wins 1795 with two pair, nines and eights.

.....I just don't know what else to do. Anyone with advice can leave a comment in my comment box, cuz I'm runnin out of excuses as to why I'm losing. I need to tell everyone why I'm a winning player and why I'm losing if I'm a good player, but I don't know what to tell these people anymore. The percentages aren't adding up. In the past 2 blog entries I've shown you a few of the hands that I've lost as a 4 to 1 or more favorite, but I have more, trust me. I'm refraining from posting them all cuz then none of you guys would ever read it!

In any case, I'm gonna keep playing cuz I know that in the "long run" I should come out winner, right? With the way that these percentages are failing, I shouldn't lose as an 80% for the next 10 years. But we'll just have to keep fighting and see what happens. I hope you guys stand by me, cuz I know it'll turn around eventually.

Bankroll: $660

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